A team of leaders from across Ethiopian society came together over the course of three meetings to create the “Destiny Ethiopia Scenarios”. They created four scenarios. The scenarios are based on the deep sharing of their experience and understanding of Ethiopia and on inputs from a panel of people with expertise on the content of the scenarios.

These scenarios are stories about what could happen over the coming years based on the current reality and the dynamics around key certainties and uncertainties. They are not forecasts or predictions of what will happen. Neither are they policy recommendations of what should happen.

These scenarios are anchored in the current situation of Ethiopia. They offer different stories of how the future could evolve and play out. The scenarios are relevant, challenging, credible, and clear. That way, they are useful in conversations, debates and decision-making to address the challenges the country faces. The stories support an open and constructive search for answers to key questions: What are the challenges that Ethiopia faces? What are the opportunities? What are the possible paths to take for a better future for Ethiopians?

Scenarios play a very particular role in strategic planning. Because they are stories and because they come in sets of two or more different, plausible stories, they offer the political advantage of supporting informed debate without committing anyone to any particular policy position. Scenarios enable us to deal with the reality that – although we cannot predict or control the future – we can work with and influence it.