In the scenario of Dawn, progress is hopeful but initially tentative: it takes time for the full light of the new day to be visible. Ethiopians build on recent reforms and reconciliation processes as it progresses on a democratic path. Deep-rooted contradictions salient at different levels within communities are being resolved through open, round table discussions. Conceptions of forgiveness and conciliation – as opposed to antagonism and hatred – are gaining currency among formal and social media channels. Institutions and the economy are gradually and steadily built up and strengthened in line with a clarifying vision and with a growing unity.
In this scenario, like a Divided House, different sectors and regions use their newfound freedom to pursue their own ambitions; gaps and divisions grow at all levels of society. The economy is doing well but social development does not receive adequate attention. Multiple crises expose the central government’s fragility. Some regional states strengthen to the point that they are confident about total self-autonomy.
In the scenario of Hegemony, we believe that authoritarianism is the most prudent response to our challenges and conflicts. An authoritarian state uses a strong hand to control violence and to manage the economy, the environment, and population pressures. With time, Ethiopians become disenchanted with inadequate social development, and an uprising is inevitable.
In this scenario, like a Broken Chair that appears to stand but cannot bear any weight, our incapacity cannot support progress at all levels of society. There are bright spots initially but the need to respond to the booming population places strain on the system. The challenges are clear, but our inability to develop the capacity to respond effectively and early leads to stagnation later on.